Rolling Returns

The Problem with Point-to-Point Returns

When you see "3Y return: 15%", that's the return from exactly 3 years ago to today. Change the start date by even a month, and the number could be 12% or 19%.

This is point-to-point return — one data point that can be misleading.

What Are Rolling Returns?

Rolling returns calculate the return for every possible start date over a given window.

Example: 3-year rolling returns for a fund with 10 years of data:

Jan 2015 to Jan 2018: 14%
Feb 2015 to Feb 2018: 12%
Mar 2015 to Mar 2018: 16%
...
Jan 2022 to Jan 2025: 11%

This gives you hundreds of data points instead of one.

What Rolling Returns Reveal

Consistency: Is the fund consistently in the 12-18% range, or does it swing from -5% to +40%?
Minimum return: In the worst rolling period, what did the fund deliver?
Probability of positive return: Over all 3-year windows, how often was the return positive?
Category comparison: Which fund is more consistent over rolling periods?

Reading a Rolling Returns Chart

X-axis: Start date of each rolling period
Y-axis: Annualized return for that period
Flat line (narrow band): Very consistent fund
Spiky line (wide band): Volatile, inconsistent fund

Key Insight

A fund with 15% 3Y return today but inconsistent rolling returns is riskier than one with 13% 3Y return but narrow rolling return bands.

Always check rolling returns before investing. They tell you what CAGR and point-to-point cannot.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.